US Election != Prediction Markets

There is one positive about the election as non-US external observer. It shows who you can trust on data. This election is very statistically tight, anyone who says they “know the result” is someone you can stop taking advice from.

Second point is most of my contacts are market professionals, they know how this works, at least deep down. If they suggest gambling odds are indicative of anything or a leading indicator, again you can take the off your list of useful advisors. Gambling markets balance the interests of groups of gamblers they don’t make predictions. If that were true sports odds would match results over time. They don’t they reflect what they think gamblers will bet on. Anyone from the “markets” knows this or should.

Just because someone guesses it right this time or guessed right last time doesn’t make them reliable in the future. The plural of anecdote isn’t data.

Whoever wins it will tell us a lot about polling capability as the statistical clustering shows they are all biasing. Presumably to correct or overcorrect for prior errors, but new election new data.

Whilst it effects the whole world I’m glad it doesn’t effect me directly.